Have you heard? California recently shook up the auto and transportation sectors when they mandated that all vans and trucks must be electric within the next four years. These guidelines are a first-of-their-kind in any state. Regulators have essentially mandated that diesel commercial trucks and vans must be moved to batteries or hydrogen fuel cells by 2024.
Even more, the new rules were written very broadly to cover a wide range of truck segments, whether it be medium-duty urban models or Class 8 heavy duty trucks. And even though California has been waging a long battle with the Trump Administration on reigning in emissions, California holds big sway across the industry as a whole.
Many consider this move to be a boon to companies like Nikola Motors and Tesla, both of which are working on electric heavy-duty big rigs and hydrogen-powered commercial motor vehicles. Other companies, such as Detroit-based Rivian, have already been contracted to produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles for companies like Amazon.
The surge in interest is coming from a combination of market demand, policies and economics as per kilowatt hour battery technology drops in price. Additionally, big companies such as Amazon, IKEA, UPS and FedEx are either making big purchases or preparing to, setting up EV truck OEMs for success. But cities across the United States are also buying EVs, including electric transit buses, garbage trucks and pickup trucks. The trend is obvious. So, what’s going on in California?
What Are the Details?
Under the guidelines put forth by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), a minimum of 40% of the big rig sold in California will have to be powered by zero-emissions technologies by 2024. For medium-duty trucks, such as utility pick up trucks, over 55 percent of their sales must be zero-emission by 2035. For common delivery trucks and vans used for urban delivery, 75 percent of dealer sales must be zero-emissions by 2035. California has also mandated that 100% of Californian government fleets and last-mile delivery trucks will need to meet these targets by 2035.
During the hearings to debate the new regulations, CARB heard from clean air advocates and industry officials. Not surprisingly, there were a lot of strong feelings on the matter. Clean air advocates say that these kinds of regulations are necessary to address broader global warming concerns. On the other side, industry advocates.
Many industry officials feel the numbers CARB is shooting for just aren’t realistic, based on factors like the rate at which consumers have adopted electric vehicles—which is far, far below the rate they’ll need to meet another CARB goal of 5 million electric consumer vehicles by 2030. The main problem with this has been consumer and business anxiety regarding charging options, though these concerns will change.
The Truck and Engine Manufacturer’s Association (TEMA), came out strongly against the measure. Specifically, TEMA argues that hydrogen and electric trucks are problematic because they are far more expensive than traditional internal-combustion tractor trailers. They are also concerned about a lack of charging infrastructure to support the regulation.
While there are companies out there working on their own charging networks, they are expensive to produce and there is a lot of lead-time involved with getting charging networks up and running. Still, there are plenty of companies working on building out their own charging networks.
One example of this is a Volkswagen subsidiary called Electrify America, which has been hard at work completing a cross-country network of charging stations. Their current project includes a network spanning nearly 2,700 miles and running through 11 states. And they aren’t the only ones. Other companies, such as ChargePoint and EVGo are also getting ready for their own charging network launches.
Big truck OEMs have begun to see the writing on the wall. Whether they want to be part of an electric future or not, circumstances are dragging them in that direction. With companies like Nikola Motors lapping at their heels, the big auto makers are taking notice. Consider that Nikola Motors now has a larger market capitalization than Ford and they have yet to deliver a single vehicle.
In fact, some of the big automakers are themselves investing in companies moving into the electric space. Ford, for instance, along with Amazon and others, has invested in Rivian. General Motors, meanwhile, has announced plans to build electric delivery vans and is already prepping an all-electric hummer for a 2021 debut.
The Electric Truck Wars Heat Up
As we have reported on many times before, from Daimler AG to Kenworth, heavy duty truck manufacturers are repeatedly getting in on the electric truck game. With so much at stake, it would be a missed business opportunity should they sit out the new dominant trend in truck manufacturing. When it comes to the future of trucks, if California has anything to say about it, it may be all-electric.
All of this comes against the backdrop of an increasingly competitive electric truck market. Consider that trucks are as American as hot apple pie on your grandmother’s windowsill, yet the market has changed. We are now in a new age with Ford already stating they are going to launch an all-electric F-150 pickup truck sometime in 2022.
Tesla is also exploding with growth, with their stock price now well-above $1,000 per share. And because their competitor, Nikola Motors, is getting ready to move to market with their electric semi, Tesla is now going all-out to ensure they are not left behind. These efforts are reflected by the fact that they are close to becoming the most valuable car company in the world.
Lots of big investors are betting on a future full of electric trucks. Just as Tesla has seen its stock soar, Nikola Motors is also on a tear. Since it went public in early May, the company has shot up to a valuation of over $3.3 billion. That makes Nikola Motors nearly as valuable as Fiat Chrysler and they have not yet sold a single vehicle.
The difference is that Nikola Motors is working on a hydrogen fuel cell electric semi. Meanwhile, Tesla has bet the bank on Lithium-Ion batteries, and they have been hard at work innovating in the space. Other companies making waves in the electric truck space include Bollinger, Atlis, and Lordstown Motors.
Electric Powertrains Go Mainstream
Of course, the heart of any big rig is its powertrain, and beyond big OEMs getting in on the electric game, powertrain manufacturers are as well. There are lots of new entrants into the field working on going all-electric.
One example is a company called Hyliion Inc. They are looking to make their own mark in the Class 8 electrified market through the launch of their Hypertruck Electric Range Extender (ERX), a long-haul, fully electric powertrain, with an order from logistics company Agility for 1,000 trucks.
The difference is that Hyliion still counts on natural gas-powered generator to assist with battery charging. With the combination of a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX boasts more than 1,000 miles of range. The powertrain also produces electricity locally at roughly 30% less than the average grid cost, yielding a seven-year cost-of-ownership.
Powertrains like these serve multiple purposes. Not only do they help trucking companies meet their sustainability goals, but they save money, keep customers happy and provide additional shareholder benefit. They also keep trucking companies at the cutting edge of what’s new.
Range anxiety may be a thing of the past for most consumer electric vehicles, but for truckers, 500 miles just isn’t enough to make a dent in the longest hauls. That said, by the time CARB’s new regulations come to fruition in 2030, we could have a new electric battery that can squeeze out that extra juice. But even if we don’t, the U.S. should have a sufficient charging infrastructure by then to support long haul electric truck drivers.
from Quick Transport Solutions Trucking Blog https://ift.tt/2ZESuj0
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