Mazda Bets on the Internal Combustion Engine – For Now

By Andrew Boada, Editor at Large

Unlike virtually all of its competitors, rather than putting its focus transitioning to BEVs, Mazda is bucking the trend as it seeks to build the perfect internal combustion engine. If their read on the changing composition of new vehicle sales is correct, they may be the only major OEM getting things right.

It’s not what you know…

These days, everyone knows that internal combustion engines are a dying technology and soon we’ll all be driving electric vehicles. The rush by almost all the major OEMs to introduce an ever-widening selection of EVs seems to confirm the popular wisdom. One of them, however, Japanese OEM Mazda, strongly believes that what everyone knows probably isn’t so. Rather than joining the rush to introduce EVs of their own, instead – for now at least – they’re doubling down on the internal combustion engine.

What are Mazda’s leaders thinking? Are they committing Mazda to a serious strategic blunder? Not if they’ve read the tea leaves right, and naturally, they’re betting they have. They may well be right.

The internal Combustion Engine: Maybe Not So Dead After All

According to their own market research, Mazda analysts believe that even by 2035, 85 percent of all new vehicles sold around the world will continue to have internal combustion engines in them, the majority of which as part hybrid drivetrains of one form or another. While this may not be the most popular opinion on the matter, they’re not the only ones to have reached the conclusion that imminent death of the internal combustion engine has been rather overstated. Mazda’s view is shared by analysts at the Michigan-based Center for Automotive Research, who have projected that ICE vehicles will still retain an 80 percent share of new vehicle sales through the 2030s.

It is In light of this analysis that Mazda have decided, for the time being, that the most economical and effective strategy for remaining competitive in an ever tightening emissions regulatory environment is to focus first on bringing ICE technology as close to perfection as possible.

Mazda: The King of Corporate Average Fuel Economy

Their strategy seems to be working. Since introducing the first generation of its fuel efficient “SkyActiv” engines in 2012, Mazda has been at the top of the EPA’s corporate average fuel economy (CAFÉ) rankings for five of the past six years despite the fact that it did not (and still doesn’t) produce a single hybrid or electric vehicle.

Mazda is set to push its CAFE considerably higher next year, when its second generation “SkyActiv X” engine, which will be the world’s first production gasoline engine to utilize compression ignition, goes into production. According to Mazda, a company with a solid reputation for delivering on its claims, their new SkyActiv X engine will deliver a 20-30 percent efficiency improvement over its predecessor.

How might a 20-30 percent more efficient engine translate in terms of fuel economy? The Mazda 6 Touring, which uses currently the SkyActive G engine, has an EPA combined fuel economy rating of 30 mpg. Outfitted with the new SkyActiv X engine, its fuel economy could increase to 36-39 mpg. The car’s actual fuel economy could well be better than that though, because Mazda is also working on improving its vehicles’ fuel economy in other ways, for example by reducing their weight and improving their aerodynamics.

The increased efficiency of SkyActiv X should have fleet-wide implications for Mazda as well, since they plan to include it in all but one of their vehicles. As of 2017, Mazda’s CAFE stood at 29.3 mpg. With the rollout of SkyActiv X, this could rise to something like 35 mpg or better. Unless their competitors manage similar efficiency improvements, that would put Mazda at the front of the pack by a wide margin.

A Lowest Cost Path to Reduced Emissions

Mazda’s strategy of delaying electrification in favor of improving the internal combustion engine offered two additional advantages, both of which relate to the total cost of ownership of their vehicles. Firstly, they avoided adding to their vehicles the high cost of today’s batteries, and secondly, the fuel economy gains they achieved were unlikely to be accompanied by compromised reliability or increased operating costs.

That’s because, as Engineering Manager at Mazda North America Dave Colman explains, “As new as the concept of what we’re doing here [with the SkyActive X engine] is, the way we’re executing it is with a lot of parts that are proven in other engines. Ignition coils, spark plugs, fuel injection systems, superchargers, EZR valves – all these things we know how to make. We’ve just put them together in an unusual way to achieve a different goal. So that, on top of our whole development process, we really have no worries on our end about the reliability of this engine. This really should be a rock solid performer.”

The Hybrids are Coming

Electrification is indeed on the way for Mazda — as witnessed in this week’s announcement, as it will most certainly be needed to help Mazda achieve tightening CAFE mandates even if they continue to make the additional improvements to their engines they believe to be possible. Their first HEVs, which will be mild hybrids, should hit the roads in 2019. In 2021, they intend to produce their first large battery PHEVs. By this time, they expect their hybrids to benefit both from batteries that should be more capable and less expensive than the ones their competitors are turning to at present, as well as from the improvements they’ve been making to their internal combustion engines.

If the composition of new car sales in the coming years and decades proves to be in line with Mazda’s current expectations, their decision to keep their focus on a technology that is currently widely believed to be dying may prove to have been a wise one that gives them an advantage in cost and quality over their competitors who rushed prematurely to BEVs. For fleet managers who are looking for vehicles that deliver reduced emissions at low cost without trading off performance, what Mazda has to offer may be worth looking into.

 

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