Even released in the maelstrom that is the Volkswagen dieselgate scandal, it was stunning news: Last week, Toyota committed to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of its entire fleet of new cars — some 10.2 million per year, or about 14 per cent of annual global production — by 90 per cent by 2050.
Traditionally-powered vehicles will represent but a sliver of its fleet – probably reduced to large trucks and other specialty vehicles – replaced instead, says senior managing officer Kiyotaka Ise, by hybrids and fuel cell-powered vehicles. “You may think 35 years is a long time,” said Ise in Tokyo last Wednesday, “but for an automaker to envision all combustion engines as gone is pretty extraordinary.”
Most interesting was that electric vehicles barely warranted a mention in Toyota’s announcement, the company seemingly committing to the fuel cell just as battery-powered electric vehicles are garnering media acceptance. It’s a huge commitment since fuel cells barely warrant a footnote in the war on automotive emissions (Toyota sold 350 of its hydrogen-fueled Mirai in Japan last year and only this week went on sale in the United States), and hybrids have been stuck at three per cent of the North American market share for the better part of the last decade.
Most interesting is that this puts Toyota on a collision course with media darling Elon Musk,Tesla’s CEO labeling hydrogen-fueled cars “a load of rubbish.” What’s also interesting about this seeming soap opera drama — Musk calls the hydrogen-based technology “fool cells” — is that, while the average consumer thinks of them as radically different technologies, both battery-powered electric vehicles (BEV) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) are, well, electric vehicles. Both are powered by electric motors, both are monitored by similar electronic control units and both promise zero tailpipe emissions. Indeed, the only difference between the two is how they store their electricity, BEVs using a battery — usually lithium ion — to store kilowatts while the FCEV’s “fool cell” runs on hydrogen.
Most interesting is that this puts Toyota on a collision course with media darling Elon Musk,Tesla’s CEO labeling hydrogen-fueled cars “a load of rubbish.” What’s also interesting about this seeming soap opera drama — Musk calls the hydrogen-based technology “fool cells” — is that, while the average consumer thinks of them as radically different technologies, both battery-powered electric vehicles (BEV) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) are, well, electric vehicles. Both are powered by electric motors, both are monitored by similar electronic control units and both promise zero tailpipe emissions. Indeed, the only difference between the two is how they store their electricity, BEVs using a battery — usually lithium ion — to store kilowatts while the FCEV’s “fool cell” runs on hydrogen.
Critics of fuel cells state hydrogen is difficult to store; the high pressures and cold temperatures require a stress on both the refueling infrastructure and the car’s fuel tank. They also note that methane reforming — just one of the ways to produce hydrogen — pollutes just as much as conventional cars. And, of course, as Brooke Crothers did in Forbes, naysayers will claim that “Tesla is about 35 years ahead of” Toyota’s ambitious goal of fleet-wide emissions reduction.
Nonetheless, Toyota is betting big-time on fuel cells, hoping to sell as many as 30,000 per year by 2020, at which point it hopes to have cut its carbon dioxide emissions by 22 per cent. This will require an investment, says Toyota, of 500 billion yen ($5.5 billion), not to mention the investment that will be required by suppliers who, having already geared up for the expensive transition to BEVs, may now face yet another heavy investment.
Read more of the original article in Motor Mouth.
The post Motor Mouth: Is the end (of gasoline engines) near? appeared first on Fleet Management Weekly.
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